Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

738
FXUS63 KBIS 072112
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
412 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms over much of
  western and central North Dakota late this afternoon and
  tonight.

- There is a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) of severe
  thunderstorms over portions of western North Dakota Monday
  night.

- Another round of scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms is
  possible on Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures through Tuesday, then trending
  cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Quick update for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch number
285 for western and much of central North Dakota. The Storm
Prediction Center has opted for a PDS (Particularly Dangerous
Situation) Severe watch due to the likelihood of damaging winds
this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Currently, southwest flow aloft ahead of a dynamic upper level
trough advancing east into the Rockies. Quasi-stationary/slowly
east moving surface trough/frontal boundary stretches from far
western South Dakota north-northeast across far western North
Dakota this afternoon. Very warm and humid weather across
western and central ND, with current afternoon temperatures
well into the 80s to lower 90s, along with sfc dewpoint
temperatures in the 60s to near 70. This results in mixed layer
CAPE of 2-3K J/KG west into north central. Effective/bulk shear
remains mainly along to west of the sfc boundary, 35-50kts far
west. Elevated echos over central ND at the moment, and not
expecting anything from this with a stout low level capping
inversion here.

Some storms may initiate between 20-22Z across the western
Dakotas looking at the latest CAMs/WoFS runs, with some models
closer to 23Z. Have not seen anything out of the Black Hills
yet, but there have been a few towers and orphan anvils there
the past hour. Nothing within the CU field over western ND, but
latest mesoanalysis indicates CIN eroding. Anything developing
across western ND would be discrete and would pose a threat for
very large hail considering the lapse rates we`ve sampled via
the BIS 18Z sounding. Will be monitoring this area closely. A
bigger threat for severe winds will materialize as convection
developing over the higher terrain of the Big Horns and
southeastern Montana push northeast and congeals into a linear
line/bow echo. Last several WoFS runs are indicating a damaging
wind swath from southwest North Dakota northeast into north
central areas of North Dakota, including Beach and Bowman,
northeast through Dickinson, Killdeer, Hazen, Garrison, and
possibly Minot. Winds of 85-100 mph will be possible in this
swath. Latest SPC Day 1 did upgrade this area to a Moderate
Risk (level 4 of 5) with elevated likelihood of occurrence,
with much of the remaining area outside of the James Valley
still in the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) area.

Storms will end west to east tonight behind the FROPA, with
winds becoming more west/northwest and clouds diminishing.
Cooler and less humid for Monday behind the front.

WAA and southwest flow aloft increases Monday night into
Tuesday, as a subtle mid level S/WV ridge moves across the area
ahead of another mid level trough. Marginal (threat level 1 of
5) Risk for severe storms over western North Dakota Monday
night as lead energy ejects out of the trough and low level
moisture increases again, followed by another Slight/Enhanced
Risk (2/3 of 5) for much of the area on Tuesday as the
aforementioned trough pushes into the Northern Plains and drives
another frontal boundary east across the region.

Afterwards, we will remain in an active pattern with the general
flow dominated by upper level lows or troughing. This will
maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, along with
temperatures trending cooler and closer to early/mid June highs
and lows (highs mid 60s to mid 70s...lows 45-55).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Strong south to southeast winds over central ND today with
mainly scattered mid and high clouds. Late this afternoon and
tonight strong to severe storms will move west to east across
the forecast area, associated with a cold front moving through.
Strong gusty and erratic winds can be expected with any
thunderstorms, along with MVFR ceilings and visibilities in
heavy downpours. The front will shift wind west-northwesterly.
Areas of MVFR ceilings are possible behind the convection late
tonight into early Monday morning, before all sites trend VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ004-005-012-013-020-022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-
058>062.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH