Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS63 KBIS 131807
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1207 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today into this evening. Then very windy Thursday
  through Friday.

- Well above average temperatures will generally continue
  through the middle of the week, with highs Wednesday more
  seasonable in the east.

- Light rain/snow chances return late this afternoon/evening
  with higher chances Thursday evening through Friday morning.
  The highest chances (60 to 80 percent) are along and east of
  Highway 83.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Overall limited changes need to the forecast at this time. Light
rain continues in the southwest. A backdoor front is forecast to
bring low clouds and some rain and snow showers from northeast
to southwest later today through tonight. Made some minor
changes to the PoPs associated with this front. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 855 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Overall the forecast remains on track. Rain showers continue to
be found across the southwest and may linger through much of the
day. A more isolated to scattered round of rain and snow is
still forecast this afternoon into this evening across central
and eastern portions of the state. Overall made minor PoP
updates based on current radar trends in the southwest.

UPDATE
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A few radar echoes are starting to appear on the Bowman radar,
which is in line with morning expectations for potential rain in
the southwest. These will likely expand in coverage over the
next few hours. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The primary forecast challenges for this period are winds, light
precipitation, and temperatures. First, gusty winds are
expected today before diminishing from northwest to southeast
this evening and through the night. Even stronger winds are then
expected Thursday, through Thursday night, and into Friday
morning. In addition to winds, multiple rounds of light
precipitation are possible, including rain in the southwest this
morning and early afternoon. Light snow, maybe with some rain
mixed in late this afternoon and evening mainly in central ND.
The next best potential for accumulating snow is then late
Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with the highest
chances along and east of Highway 83.

In regard to winds today, surface low pressure will propagate
from central Manitoba towards southern Ontario, or the northern
Great Lakes Region. Along with strong high pressure over the
western CONUS, this will tighten the pressure gradient helping
to drive gusty northwesterly winds. However, there is no obvious
strong CAA nor pressure rises during the day today. The best
pressure rises pass through this evening mainly over north
central and eastern ND. Without being during the best mixing
hours and with a lack of strong CAA, feel winds will generally
remain below advisory criteria. However, localized stronger
gusts aren`t entirely out of the question.

Very strong winds are then likely Thursday through Thursday
night before gradually diminishing throughout the day Friday.
There remains some uncertainty as to how these winds will play
out. EFI values have increased since last night (though remain
similar to yesterday afternoon) resulting in increasing
confidence in solid advisory level winds, with the potential for
high winds. However, limited deterministic guidance produces
marginal pressure rises during the day Thursday. And as of now,
the pressure bubble passing through Thursday night and Friday
morning isn`t terribly impressive and generally doesn`t align
with the best CAA. That said, deterministic runs are very
limited, so will continue to trust ensemble guidance and raise
wind gust messaging, including in the HWO, to 55 mph for
Thursday through Friday morning.

In regard to precipitation chances, seemingly forced by the left
exit region of a jetstreak, light rain is likely mainly in the
southwest this morning and possibly into the afternoon. For the
most part, total rain should be a couple hundredths or less.
However, up to a tenth of an inch isn`t out of the question in
the far southwest. There could also be some light snow, possibly
with rain mixed in early, late this afternoon and evening in
central ND. Little to no accumulations are expected.

With the aforementioned windier system to finish out the
workweek, snow chances remain possible mainly along and east of
Highway 83 Thursday evening through Friday morning. Currently,
not a lot of moisture is progged with this system, but it is the
next best chance for accumulating snow. While total snow seems
limited, there could be periods of significant visibility
reduction while snow is falling due to the very strong winds
presently forecast.

Finally, temperatures remain well above average through
Thursday, though eastern ND will be closer to average Wednesday.
Confidence in regard to temperatures Friday is fairly high with
the return to more seasonable conditions. However, the remainder
of the forecast period beyond that remains a crapshoot. A ridge
over the west CONUS looks to amplify beyond what it currently
is thus putting most of the region into northerly flow aloft.
However, just how far west the eastern extent of the ridge is
pushed will determine just how cool things become and the
duration of any cooler temperatures. Nevertheless, NBM ensemble
25th/75th percentile spreads remain extremely large, especially
for central ND where Bismarck`s spread for a high on Saturday is
from 8 to 37 degrees. Spreads further east and west are closer
to 20 degrees, with eastern temperatures progged to be lower
overall, and western (especially southwestern) warmer overall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions becoming MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
during the forecast period. VFR conditions will be found through
today, with some light rain possible in the far southwest. This
evening through tonight, a backdoor cold front will bring lower
cloud ceilings and isolated to scattered rain and snow showers.
Confidence was not high enough to include precipitation mention.
Confidence was high enough to include MVFR to IFR ceilings in
most TAFs. Ceilings may then improve from west to east
Wednesday, although could still see MVFR to IFR conditions
through Wednesday morning. Breezy winds today will become light
and variable late tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin