Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

367
FXUS63 KBIS 302102
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
402 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures will continue through mid-week.
  Breezy winds may also be found through mid-week.

- A winter storm may impact North Dakota in multiple waves early
  Tuesday through Wednesday evening. The chance for at least an
  inch of snow is above 50% in most areas except the northwest.


- Currently, the more significant winter impacts are favored
  across southeastern portions of the state where there is a 70%
  chance of at least 6 inches of snow. Gusty winds may also
  bring further reductions in visibility from falling and
  blowing snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Surface high with a ridge aloft will work its way into the area
tonight. Cloud cover may start to diminish across the CWA as a
result, although trapped lower level moisture under the high may
linger clouds in some areas through the night. A few flurries
are possible from these lower clouds, although a mainly dry
forecast is possible. Overnight lows in the mid teens to mid
20s are expected. If more clearing can come about then cooler
temperatures and perhaps some patchy fog from lessening winds is
possible. This high and the upper level ridge pull away on
Monday. The result could be some breezy southeasterly winds,
especially in the west. Temperatures may also warm slightly, yet
remain near to slightly below normal in the upper 20s to lower
40s.

The attention then turns to a potential winter storm Monday
night through Wednesday night. This looks to come in the form of
multiple waves with the more impactful period Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. Ahead of the surface low, a broad
trough will bring southwest flow with warm air advection aloft.
This will provide the first round of snow sometime early Tuesday
through the day Tuesday. Periods of decent snow are possible
with this first round, although there remains some uncertainty
in how much snow. Temperatures could be near freezing, perhaps
mixing in rain at times. The synoptic lift also doesn`t look as
impressive as the second wave. Thus this period will have to be
monitored for winter highlights, as a quick 1 to 2 inches are
possible if more snow than rain falls. Upper level trough then
kicks out the surface low Tuesday night through Wednesday. This
will be the second and perhaps more widespread chances of snow
to the area. Synoptic forcing is also better with this low,
especially in the south central and southeast. This combined
with gusty winds could also further the potential for winter
weather impacts. Thus a Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for
much of southeastern North Dakota Tuesday evening through
Wednesday evening. This area has a 50 to 70% of 6 inches of
snow during this time period, with low to perhaps medium chance
of 8 or more inches of snow. This is the initial issuance of the
watch, and will have to monitor for any westward expansions
especially if the initial wave on Tuesday comes in with more
snow. As mentioned gusty winds to 35 mph could accompany this
winter storm. Blowing snow model keeps the blowing snow
potential from patchy to areas, likely given the warm
temperatures and water content in the snow. Snow then tapers off
Wednesday evening, although patchy blowing snow is possible
into the night. Highs during this system will generally be in
the 30s, with low in the 20s.

Northwest flow then looks to take over for the rest of the week.
Embedded waves in northwest flow could bring slight chances for
rain and snow through the end of the week. Depending how close
to a building upper level ridge North Dakota gets will greatly
influence temperatures during this time period. NBM is
maintaining near to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures,
although the spreads indicate warmer temperatures are possible
more so later in the week or upcoming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Lingering cloud cover will continue to bring MVFR to perhaps
brief IFR conditions through this afternoon across most sites,
with MVFR to VFR conditions from about KBIS to KJMS. Some
flurries or sprinkles are possible with this low cloud cover
today, although confidence is too low to include at this time.
Tonight, clouds are expected to go on a diminishing trend,
although could linger at MVFR to low VFR levels through the
night. Monday morning then sees mainly VFR conditions, although
some sites could see FEW to SCT MVFR to low VFR ceilings.
Breezy northerly winds may still linger today, especially in the
east. Breezy southerly winds are then possible for Monday,
especially in the west.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday
night for NDZ037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin